KMG Blog

First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit at a Glance
August 22nd, 2008 2:39 PM

We have received an overwhelming number of questions regarding the new "Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008" that was recently passed into law.  I have done some research and have compiled the following information.  I hope you find it helpful.

First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit at a Glance

  • The tax credit is available for first-time home buyers only.
  • The credit is available for homes purchased on or after April 9, 2008 and before July 1, 2009.
  • The maximum credit amount is $7,500.
  • Single tax payers with incomes up to $75,000 and married couples with incomes up to $150,000 qualify for the full tax credit.
  • The tax credit works like an interest-free loan and must be repaid over a 15-year period.

Frequently Asked Questions:

Who is eligible to claim the $7,500 tax credit?

First-time home buyers purchasing any kind of home - new or resale - are eligible for the tax credit. To qualify for the tax credit, a home purchase must occur on or after April 9, 2008 and before July 1, 2009. For the purposes of the tax credit, the purchase date is the date when closing occurs.

What is the definition of a first-time home buyer?

The law defines "first-time home buyer" as a buyer who has not owned a principal residence during the three-year period prior to the purchase. For married taxpayers, the law tests the homeownership history of both the home buyer and his/her spouse. For example, if you have not owned a home in the past three years but your spouse has owned a principal residence, neither you nor your spouse qualifies for the first-time home buyer tax credit. Ownership of a vacation home or rental property not used as a principal residence does not disqualify a buyer as a first-time home buyer.

How do I claim the tax credit?

Simple! You claim the tax credit on your federal income tax return. No application or forms are required. No pre-approval is necessary; however, prospective home buyers will want to be sure they qualify for the credit under the income limits and first-time home buyer tests.

What types of homes will qualify for the tax credit?

Any home purchased by an eligible first-time home buyer will qualify for the credit, provided that the home will be used as a principal residence and the buyer has not owned a home in the previous three years. This includes single-family homes, townhouses and condominiums, manufactured homes, and houseboats.

I heard the tax credit is refundable.  What does that mean?

The fact that the credit is refundable means that the home buyer credit can be claimed even if the taxpayer has little or no federal income tax liability to offset. Typically this involves the government sending the taxpayer a check for a portion or even all of the amount of the refundable tax credit.

For example, if a qualified home buyer expected federal income tax liability of $5,000 and had tax withholding of $4,000 for the year, then without the tax credit the tax payer would owe the IRS $1,000 on April 15th.  Suppose now that taxpayer qualified for the $7,500 home buyer tax credit.  As a result, the taxpayer would receive a check for $6,500 ($7,500 minus the $1,000 owed).

What is the difference between a tax credit and a tax deduction?

A tax credit is a dollar-for-dollar reduction in what the taxpayer owes. That means that a taxpayer who owes $7,500 in income taxes and who receives a $7,500 tax credit would owe nothing to the IRS.

A tax deduction is subtracted from the amount of income that is taxed. Using the same example, assume the taxpayer is in the 15 percent tax bracket and owes $7,500 in income taxes. If the taxpayer receives a $7,500 deduction, the taxpayer’s tax liability would be reduced by $1,125 (15 percent of $7,500), or lowered from $7,500 to $6,375.

Does the credit have to be paid back to the government?  If so, what are the payback provisions?

Yes, the tax credit must be repaid. Home buyers will be required to repay the credit to the government, without interest, over 15 years or when they sell the house, if there is sufficient capital gain from the sale.

For example, a home buyer claiming a $7,500 credit would repay the credit at $500 per year. The home owner does not have to begin making repayments on the credit until two years after the credit is claimed. So, if the tax credit is claimed on the 2008 tax return, a $500 payment is not due until the 2010 tax return is filed.

If the home owner sold the home, then the remaining credit amount would be due from the profit on the home sale. If there was insufficient profit, then the remaining credit payback would be forgiven.

If I'm qualified for the tax credit and buy a home in 2009, can I apply the tax credit against my 2008 return?

Yes. The law allows taxpayers to choose ("elect") to treat qualified home purchases in 2009 as if the purchase occurred on December 31, 2008. This means that the 2008 income limit (MAGI) applies and the election accelerates when the credit can be claimed (tax filing for 2008 returns instead of for 2009 returns). A benefit of this election is that a home buyer in 2009 will know their 2008 MAGI with certainty, thereby helping the buyer know whether the income limit will reduce their credit amount.

Is there a way for a home buyer to access the credit sooner than waiting to file their 2008 return?

Yes. Prospective home buyers who believe they qualify for the tax credit are permitted to reduce their income tax withholding. Reducing tax withholding (up to the amount of the credit) will enable the future home buyer to accumulate cash by raising his/her take home pay. This money can then be applied to the downpayment. Buyers should adjust their withholding amount on their W-4 via their employer or through their quarterly estimated tax payment. IRS Publication 919 contains rules and guidelines for income tax withholding.

Prospective home buyers should note that if income tax withholding is reduced and the tax credit qualified purchase does not occur, then the individual would be liable for repayment to the IRS of income tax and possible interest charges and penalties.


Posted by Maryellen Garasky on August 22nd, 2008 2:39 PMPost a Comment (0)

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30 States had Positive Changes in House Prices over the last year!
August 28th, 2008 4:05 PM

We've all seen the evening news.
We've all heard the horror stories about our
Nation's current housing market...

Read on...

I thought I would (with permission from Bill Sauneuf of Preview Properties Skagit LLC - CLICK HERE), help bring a little light to the situation we currently find ourselves in.  Thanks, Bill!

More good news for the real estate industry!!

According to the Office of Federal Housing Oversight's Housing Price Index for the 2nd Quarter of 2008 released August 26th, 30 of the 50 States had positive changes in house prices from June 2007 through June 2008, including our very own Washington State!

Only 4 States (Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and California) experienced overall price declines of more than 5 percent.

The 20 ranked cities in the United States with the worst price declines over the last 4 quarters were ALL in Florida, California, and Nevada.

I really do sympathize with the people of these four fine States.  Some of the price declines they have experienced are simply horrible!  However, there are 50 States and only 4 with truly bad news for the last year.  The rest of the country is simply experiencing a market correction from a rapid increase over the last 5 years combined with some sloppy loan practices that hurt the lending industry.  The United States overall had a -1.71% change over the last year (skewed down heavily by the 4 troubled States).  However, even with the challenges over the last year, the United States STILL has had a 34.84% increase in home prices over the last 5 years!  -  How is that supposed to be bad???

Over the last 5 years, Arizona STILL gained 62.68%, Florida STILL gained 54.03%, Nevada STILL Gained 50.81%, and California STILL gained 41.81% despite the losses of the last 4 quarters.

It is time for the news media to put away the "Chicken Little - The Sky is Falling" type stories.  The truth is that the nation's real estate market is rebounding.

The States with a Positive Change in Prices from the 2nd Quarter 2007 through the 2nd Quarter 2008 are:

1)   Oklahoma
2)   Wyoming
3)   South Dakota
4)   North Carolina
5)   North Dakota
6)   Texas
7)   West Virginia
8)   Montana
9)   South Carolina
10) Alabama
11) Kentucky
12) Mississippi
13) Louisiana
14) Tennessee
15) Maine
16) Utah
17) Iowa
18) Colorado
19) Indiana
20) New Mexico
21) Vermont
22) Nebraska
23) Pennsylvania
24) Kansas
25) Idaho
26) Georgia
27) Arkansas
28) Wisconsin
29) Missouri
30) Washington

* Reprinted with permission.


Posted by Maryellen Garasky on August 28th, 2008 4:05 PMPost a Comment (0)

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The Changing Landscape for Loan Originators and Mortgage Brokers
August 27th, 2008 4:18 PM

On July 30, 2008, President Bush signed HR 3221.

Title V of the law, the "SAFE Act", requires all states in the country to license loan originators using the Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System (NMLS), or hand over their licensing authority to HUD. The legislation gives states 1-2 years to make a good faith effort toward joining the NMLS. The legislation also requires uniformity among states for requirements on background checks, pre-licensing and continuing education, and bonding.

So, what has KMG Mortgage Group and the states of Idaho and Washington done to comply?

You will be happy to know that Idaho and Washington are on the forefront of Loan Originator licensing.  Idaho and Washington were among the first eight (8) states to implement the NMLS system (the system now required by the Federal Government).

And, ... Idaho and Washington mandated this BEFORE the Feds said it was required!!!

Idaho's deadline for compliance is Sept 1, 2008.  Washington's deadline for compliance is Oct 31, 2008.  KMG Mortgage Group has already taken the necessary steps to be listed on the NMLS and is ahead of the curve!

What else has KMG Mortgage Group done in order to guarantee our place in the market and better serve our customers?

  • Completed and PASSED pre-licensing examinations
  • Completed and PASSED fingerprints and FBI background checks
  • Continued Education on Ethics in the Mortgage Industry
  • Certifications on compliance for State and Federal laws and mandates:
    • Equal Credit Opportunity (ECOA)
    • Various Privacy Laws
    • Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA)
    • Truth-in-Lending (TILA)
    • Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA)
    • Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act (HOEPA)
    • Federal Truth in Advertising
    • Fair Housing
  • Identifying and preventing mortgage fraud

Lastly, State and Federal laws are VERY clear on how any financially related company is supposed to maintain client privacy.  They have issued mandates and rules that talk about "Privacy Policies" and the like - if you have a credit card or bank account, I'm sure you have received numerous copies of their privacy policy (it usually comes in font too small to read, legal mumbo-jumbo only a licensed attorney can figure out).  These policies are simply a listing of what they plan to do with (AKA: who they plan to sell) your private information to.

Don't get me wrong, Privacy Policies are a great thing.  When they work.  If you don't want your information shared, you need to "Opt Out!"

KMG Mortgage Group's Privacy Policy?  We don't sell your information to anyone.  We share your information with your loan underwriter in order to get your loan approved.  THAT'S IT!

Also, in an effort to maintain the tightest industry standards on privacy, KMG Mortgage Group has, for the passed several years, contracted with a 3rd-party provider who is certified in document destruction.  Not only is your private information shredded, it is PULVERIZED BEYOND RECOGNITION!  And, in order to decrease our carbon footprint, recycled into toilet paper.  Now that's service!

There is a lot going on in the news today.  I know that even I, someone who deals with this kind of thing on a daily basis, can get overwhelmed with the constant flow of information.  It is my hope that, when you come to KMG Mortgage Group for your new home loan or mortgage, that you can trust we have been proactive in taking the necessary steps to provide you with the best service, maintain your privacy, and (simply put) REALLY know what we are doing.


Posted by Maryellen Garasky on August 27th, 2008 4:18 PMPost a Comment (0)

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A Working Mother's War Against Time ... part 2
August 25th, 2008 11:11 PM

In my last installment of "A Working Mother..." I mentioned that I have found a few things that help me manage the load.  Take what you will, but I hope you find something on this list that we help you in your battle against time:

I have a 3-ring binder called "Mommy's Weekly Menu and Recipe Book" and here's what it's all about:

The book is divided by days of the week (in front) and recipes I have collected over time (in back).  Organize the book however you want.  But, I have mine as such: Beef, Poultry, Pork, Seafood, Veggies, Starches, Desserts, and Misc.

Just a note: I don't like recipe books.  I haven't found a single book with more than just a couple of recipes that my family and I like enough to make more than once.  So, I go to www.foodnetwork.com (or, if you're feeling really gourmet, go to www.epicurious.com) and I print out recipes I know we'll love for the long haul.  And, if we don't, I can throw out the recipe without wasting a bunch of money on an entire book.

Once a week I go through my collection of recipe cards, magazine cut-outs, and on-line recipes I have printed out, and pick what I want to make for the week.  When I've identified what I am going to make, I take the recipe and put it in the front of the book for its appropriate day of the week.

From this list of recipes, I make my weekly grocery list.

You CANNOT believe how simple this makes my grocery shopping!  And, I almost never have to go to the store more than once a week because I forgot something.  If I do, it's because we have a craving for something not on my list for the week.

I try to do this every Sunday night and do my shopping after Gabrielle goes down for the night. But, let's be honest - I'm a mother, wife, and business owner.  So, I'm usually making my list while she eats breakfast Monday morning and dragging her to the store with me.

One last thing: with the cost of gas being so high, I do all my grocery shopping at one store that offers a 10 cent discount for gas with every $100 I spend.

I hope this helps you.  Don't be discouraged or overwhelmed.  Now that I have my book created and organized, from beginning to end (picking out my menu for the week to making my grocery list), it takes me about 15-20 minutes.  A small investment of time considering how much would be wasted during the week trying to think of what to make and having to run to the store to get it.

KMG Mortgage Group sends out recipes cards on a monthly basis.  They have become very popular among our list of clients - so popular, in fact, I often receive phone calls asking for additional copies for friends and family.  If you would like to receive these recipe cards on a monthly basis, CLICK HERE.

Bon appetit!


Posted by Maryellen Garasky on August 25th, 2008 11:11 PMPost a Comment (0)

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FHA loans ... coming soon!
August 21st, 2008 11:00 PM

We are EXTREMELY proud to announce that we have just concluded a VERY long, VERY intensive audit in order to provide our customers with FHA loans.  In today's volatile times, FHA loans are becoming an important part of any lender's loan offerings.  With the recent mortgage industry implosion, FHA loans allow for more flexible guidelines with 97% financing.

It's not very often that you find a mortgage broker who is licensed to do FHA loans.  So, the fact that we have come this far, and are optimistic that we are just weeks away from being able to offer FHA loans to our clients, makes us extremely proud.  Proud that we have clients who believe in us and what we do, and who have played a very important role in getting us here.  Proud that we have survived thus far.

We have forwarded our information to the FHA for futher review.  Now we play the waiting game.  Check back often for FHA updates!


Posted by Maryellen Garasky on August 21st, 2008 11:00 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Market update 8/15/08 ... moved
August 15th, 2008 1:17 PM
My "Market Update" entries have been moved to a new location on our website.  Click "Daily Rate Lock Advisory" here, or on the secondary toolbar to the left, to learn what's happening in the world of finance.

Posted by Maryellen Garasky on August 15th, 2008 1:17 PMPost a Comment (0)

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A Working Mother's War Against Time ... part 1
August 15th, 2008 12:59 PM

Last night Gabrielle told me I was her best friend.  It's what every mother wants to hear.  Granted, she's only 2 years old and I'm the only "friend" she really has, but I have to admit that my heart did a little dance.

As with every working mother I know, I struggle to balance being a mother, being a wife, being a business owner, and everything else.  So, how can I manage it all?  How can I, when I lay my head down at night, be honest with myself and know that I was a wife and mother first, business owner second?  I'm relatively new to motherhood, and my perspective may change when Gabby is 15, but I've found a few things that work for me.  My friends laugh, my husband teases me, but I know it's in fun and, after all, it seems to be working.

First, I had to let go of the "super mom" mentality.  I can't do it all.  I won't do it all.  And, I won't even pretend.  I am a mom first.  I stay home with Gabrielle and work while she's taking her afternoon nap.  Several of my industry friends tried to warn me.  They said my clients wouldn't understand - they'd want me be there at a drop of a hat.  But I haven't found this to be true, not in the slightest.

The majority of Kevin's and my business is referral and repeat.  And, we have got ourselves locked into a GREAT group of people.  Whether I'm working on a project for a customer or referral partner, they understand if I can't do it RIGHT NOW.  They respect what I'm doing and have been an unexpected source of support for me.

Second, I had to let go of the guilt of putting Gabby in daycare one day a week so I can go into the office.  I needed it - and, not because I was falling behind in my work duties.  I needed it mentally.  And, though I hear other moms saying (with that all approving nod of their heads - if you're a mom, you know what I'm talking about), "And it's good for Gabrielle, too."  I have to admit: I didn't do it for her.  I didn't do it to help her "socialize" or play with other kids her age.  Though these have been benefits and Barb, her care-provider on Wednesdays, has been a great release for me - besides the fact that Gabby LOVES her - I did it for me.  And, I'm okay with that.

I have been a working woman since I graduated from college (gulp!) in 1997.  And until recently, I never realized how much I liked to work.  I relish Gabby's nap time.  Not because I sit and eat bon-bons and watch soap operas (those who know me REALLY well know it's not soaps anyway, but repeat episodes of Harry Potter - it's a sickness, really), but because I get to work on my business.  I get to fool with my website, work on marketing ideas, fill out birthday cards for our clients, take continuing ed classes on-line, anything KMG related.

So, for now, let me just conclude that my war against time, and myself, isn't really a war at all - but a battle.  A battle of trying to fit everything in that I love to do: being a mom, being a wife, being a business owner.  Time and age have taught me my limitations.  No one likes to look in the mirror and see the affects of Father Time.  But, I just hope and pray that I am able to balance the load with such grace that, at age 15, Gabby still considers me her best friend.


Posted by Maryellen Garasky on August 15th, 2008 12:59 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Market update 8/14/08
August 14th, 2008 9:18 AM
Thursday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite a larger than expected increase in consumer prices and early stock gains. The stock markets are showing noticeable gains after initially opening in the red. The Dow is currently up 115 points while the Nasdaq has gained 22 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, but we will likely see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point due to weakness late yesterday.

This morning's release of July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that consumer prices rose 0.8% last month, doubling analysts' forecasts. Fortunately, the core data reading was much closer to forecasts with an increase of 0.3%. These figures raised inflation concerns since they pushed the annual rate of inflation to a 17-year high. However, the bond market seems to be reacting in a much more subtle way than one would expect since inflation is the number one nemesis for long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds.

The Labor Department reported this morning that 450,000 for new benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the upward revision of 460,000 of the previous week, but was still higher than the 436,000 that were expected. This can be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.  However, since this data only tracks a week's worth of claims, its impact on the markets is usually limited.

There are two pieces of data scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is Industrial Production data for July. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is considered to be of moderately high importance and may cause movement in mortgage rates. Analysts are currently expecting to see no change in production between June and July. An increase in output could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow, while a weaker than expected figure should help push rates lower.

The second report of the day will come from the University of Michigan who will release its Index of Consumer Sentiment for August. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending is likely to continue, we may see mortgage rates move higher tomorrow.

Posted by Maryellen Garasky on August 14th, 2008 9:18 AMPost a Comment (0)

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Market update 8/13/08
August 13th, 2008 1:05 PM
Wednesday's bond market has opened up slightly after this morning's economic data showed no surprises. The stock markets are showing early losses with the Dow currently down 98 points and the Nasdaq down 8 points. The bond market is currently up 15/32, but we will likely see little change in this morning's mortgage rates due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.

The Commerce Department gave us July's Retail Sales numbers early this morning, saying that sales fell 0.1% last month. This matched forecasts and hasn't had much of an impact on this morning's bond trading or mortgage rates. The portion of the report that excludes more volatile auto sales showed that sales rose 0.4%, which was slightly below forecasts. That could be considered a bit of good news for bonds, but has not influenced trading as of yet.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of July's Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is one of the most important reports we see each month since it measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy. There are two readings in the report - the overall index and the core data reading. The more important of the two is the core data because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Current forecasts call for an increase of 0.4% in the overall and 0.2% in the core data reading. Smaller than expected increases should lead to a bond rally and lower mortgage rates. However, stronger than expected readings will likely cause a spike in mortgage pricing.

Also tomorrow is the weekly release of new unemployment claims by the Labor Department. This release normally has little impact on the bond market or mortgage rates but due to the previous week's spike to 455,000 claims, analysts will likely be watching this data a little closer than usual. Another increase could send bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower, assuming the CPI doesn't reveal stronger than expected inflation readings.

Posted by Maryellen Garasky on August 13th, 2008 1:05 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Market update 8/12/08
August 12th, 2008 2:10 PM
Tuesday's bond market has opened well in positive territory with the stock markets posting sizable losses during morning trading. The Dow is currently down 121 points while the Nasdaq is down 8 points. The bond market is currently up 15/32, but we will likely see little change in this morning's mortgage rates due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.

Today's only economic news was June's Trade Balance report that revealed a much smaller than expected trade deficit. The report showed that it stood at $56.8 billion compared to the $61.9 billion that was expected. However, this data is not considered to be of high importance to mortgage rates and has not had much of an influence on today's pricing.

July's Retail Sales data will be released early tomorrow morning. This data is very important to the financial markets and mortgage rates because it helps us measure consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any data related to it can cause a fair amount of movement in the markets. A larger decline than expected would indicate that consumers are spending less than previously thought, potentially slowing the economy. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it eases inflation concerns and makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors.

July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released Thursday. The CPI is one of the most important reports we see each month. It measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy. There are two readings in the report - the overall index and the core data reading. The more important of the two is the core data because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Current forecasts call for an increase of 0.4% in the overall and 0.2% in the core data reading. Smaller than expected increases should lead to a bond rally and lower mortgage rates; stronger than expected readings will likely cause a spike in mortgage pricing.

Posted by Maryellen Garasky on August 12th, 2008 2:10 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Market update 8/11/08
August 11th, 2008 9:17 AM
Monday's bond market has opened in negative territory despite early stock losses that are resulting from oil concerns. The Dow is currently down 42 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 5 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32, but we will likely see a slight improvement to this morning's mortgage rates due to strength in bonds late Friday.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today, but the rest of the week brings us five reports for the bond market to digest. The first is June's Trade Balance report tomorrow morning that gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is the week's least important report and will likely have little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates.

July's Retail Sales data will be released early Wednesday morning. This data is very important to the financial markets and mortgage rates because it helps us measure consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any data related to it can cause a fair amount of movement in the markets. A smaller than expected increase would indicate that consumers are spending less than previously thought, potentially slowing the economy. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it eases inflation concerns and makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors.

The most important data of the three is July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday. The CPI is one of the most important reports we see each month. It measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy. There are two readings in the report - the overall index and the core data reading. The more important of the two is the core data because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Smaller than expected increases should lead to a bond rally and lower mortgage rates. However, stronger than expected readings will likely cause a spike in mortgage pricing.

There are two pieces of data scheduled for release Friday. The first is Industrial Production data for July. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is considered to be of moderately high importance and may cause movement in mortgage rates. Analysts are currently expecting to see no change in production between June and July. An increase in output could lead to higher mortgage rates Friday, while a weaker than expected figure should help push rates lower.

The second report of the day will come from the University of Michigan who will release its Index of Consumer Sentiment for August. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending is likely to continue, we may see mortgage rates move higher Friday.

Overall, look for the most movement in bond prices and mortgage rates the middle part of the week. Wednesday or Thursday will likely turn out to be the most important days.

Posted by Maryellen Garasky on August 11th, 2008 9:17 AMPost a Comment (0)

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Market update 8/7/08
August 7th, 2008 10:08 AM
Thursday's bond market has opened in positive territory following sizable stock losses. The stock markets are reacting to weak earnings news as the Dow fell 130 points and the Nasdaq lost 9 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

The Labor Department gave us last week's unemployment figures early this morning. They reported that 455,000 new claims for benefits were filed when analysts had predicted 420,000. This was a 6 year high for new claims and raises concerns that the employment sector is quickly weakening. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates, however, since this data tracks only a week's worth of filings it is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market.

Yesterday's Treasury auction went fairly well and led to afternoon buying in bonds. Today's sale will bring 30 year bonds to market and if investor demand is also strong we could see afternoon improvements in bonds again today. Results of the auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET.

Employee Productivity and Costs data for the second quarter will be released early tomorrow morning. It will give us an indication of employee output. High levels of productivity are believed to allow the economy to grow without fears of inflation. I don't see this being a big mover of mortgage pricing, but since it is the only data of the day it may influence rates slightly. Analysts are currently expecting to see an increase in productivity of 2.5%. A higher than expected reading could help improve bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates.

Posted by Maryellen Garasky on August 7th, 2008 10:08 AMPost a Comment (0)

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Market update 8/6/08
August 6th, 2008 10:39 AM
Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory as traders continue to digest yesterday's events. Also contributing to this morning's weakness was news of a much larger than expected quarterly loss of mortgage giant Freddie Mac. This raised concerns about the credit markets and the stability of the company and its sister entity Fannie Mae. The concern led to more selling in bonds this morning and sizable increases to mortgage rates.

The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 21 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 - .500 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. Yesterday's FOMC meeting has adjourned with an announcement that there was not a change to key short-term interest rates. It was the second consecutive meeting with no change and was widely expected. The post-meeting statement indicated that the Fed was aware and considered the economic slowdown but also was quite concerned about the threat of inflation. Those words created concern in the bond market since inflation erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments.

The next piece of news is tomorrow's posting of weekly unemployment figures and those are not considered to be of high importance to the markets. This leaves the bond market to be influenced by stock and oil prices. If stocks continue to move higher, we may see bonds suffer and mortgage rates move higher until Friday's data is posted. If the major indexes begin to fall, bond could benefit and drive mortgage rates lower.

Employee Productivity and Costs data for the second quarter will be released Friday morning. It will give us an indication of employee output. High levels of productivity are believed to allow the economy to grow without fears of inflation. I don't see this being a big mover of mortgage pricing, but since it is the only data of the day it may influence rates slightly. Analysts are currently expecting to see an increase in productivity. A higher than expected reading could help improve bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates.

Posted by Maryellen Garasky on August 6th, 2008 10:39 AMPost a Comment (0)

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Market update 8/5/08
August 5th, 2008 2:08 PM
Tuesday's bond market has opened in negative territory due to early stock gains. The stock markets are off to a strong start with the Dow up 165 points and the Nasdaq up 30 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

Today's FOMC meeting has adjourned with an announcement that there was not a change to key short-term interest rates. This was the second consecutive meeting with no change and was widely expected. The post-meeting statement indicated that the Fed was aware and considered the economic slowdown but also was quite concerned about the threat of inflation. That created concern in the bond market since inflation erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments.

However, bonds have actually held up quite well during afternoon trading, at least so far. The stock markets have extended their earlier gains with the Dow up 275 points and the Nasdaq up 50 points. The bond market is near morning levels, so I am not expecting a change to mortgage rates unless bonds fall from current levels.

Oil prices are continuing to fall. High fuel costs have been noted by many sources as a contributing factor to the slowing economy. As oil prices fall well off their recent highs, that concern seems to be easing. This leads to better expectations for economic activity and corporate earnings.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow. The next piece of news is Thursday's posting of weekly unemployment figures and those are not considered to be of high importance to the markets. This leaves the bond market to be influenced by stock and oil prices. If stocks continue to move higher, we may see bonds suffer and mortgage rates move higher until Friday's data is posted. If the major indexes begin to fall, bonds could benefit and drive mortgage rates lower.

Posted by Maryellen Garasky on August 5th, 2008 2:08 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Market update 8/4/08
August 4th, 2008 2:00 PM
Monday's bond market has opened down slightly following the release of stronger than expected economic data. The stock markets are also showing losses with the Dow down 18 points and the Nasdaq down 15 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

Today brought us the release of two pieces of economic news. The first was June's Personal Income and Outlays that revealed a rise in spending. Both readings were stronger than expected, indicating that consumers have more money available to spend and are using it. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

The second report of the day was June's Factory Orders. It showed a much larger increase in new orders than was expected. The jump in orders was a full percentage point higher than analysts expected. That means that the manufacturing sector may be strengthening faster than many had thought, which is also bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing.

The rest of week brings us little economic data that is likely to affect mortgage rates. However, we do have the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting tomorrow. The meeting is expected to yield no change to key interest rates. Usually, the post-meeting comments seem to have more of an influence on the markets than the rate adjustments themselves, or a lack of one in many cases.

Bond traders will be watching the post meeting statement very carefully. Generally speaking, a hint of rate hikes in the future will be construed as an indication that inflation is still a concern and would likely lead to bond selling and increases to mortgage rates. If the statement gives an indication that the Fed is not as concerned with inflation as previously noted, the bond market should rally, leading to lower mortgage rates.

Overall, we are expecting to see a choppy week in trading and mortgage rates. We will likely see the most movement in rates tomorrow with the FOMC meeting. Wednesday's Treasury auction may also affect rates during afternoon trading that day, but we suspect that the rest of the week will be driven by stock market gains or losses.

Posted by Maryellen Garasky on August 4th, 2008 2:00 PMPost a Comment (0)

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